As instructed, I’ve been working from home. I’m still working out, I haven’t really changed my diet (well, except maybe wine time) and yet, I’ve gained 20 pounds. Like my waistline, I’ve learned a lot can change in six weeks.
I’ve mentioned market movement in Hilo and HPP over the past few weeks, and while I prefer to compare one quarter to the next, it’s useful to isolate April to provide an insight into market direction across the East Hawai`i neighborhoods that I routinely track.
Admittedly, some numbers really don’t mean much because the sample size is so small. For instance, April numbers would indicate no upcoming demand for homes at Volcano Golf Course. We know that’s not the case. The numbers also indicate demand for 12 homes in PPG. That would exceed the norm. None-the-less, there’s much the numbers do tell us.
What We Know
Column 2 shows the number of residential sales last month. As you see, homes are still selling. In fact, dividing the sold numbers during the first quarter 2020 by 3 (second column from the end), demonstrates that April sales numbers are fairly consistent with the norm. Isolating April numbers seems appropriate because most sold properties went under contract during our stay at home period. Also consider the number of properties currently under contract. Routinely tracking these allows me to determine if things are slowing. So far, they are holding steady (these numbers must be tracked in real time because there’s no way to isolate dates using an MLS search).
What We Don’t Know
But as much as things are holding steady, things may be poised to change in a big way. As I mentioned, some sellers have decided to hold their listings off the market for now. While I have noticed an up-tick in new listings over the past week, it’s hard to know how many new listings are “standing by.”
The other unknown is distressed properties. Foreclosures will not affect our numbers for a few years, but a seller who gets nervous about their ability to hold on might further inflate current inventory. (For goodness sake, contact me if you are in this situation!)
On the other hand, I checked with Nui and Danny who both work with buyers on Team Nakanishi. They’re getting numerous calls EVERY DAY from incoming buyers who are just itching to get here to look for property.
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