West Maui Real Estate Hitting a Wall | Lux Market Still Churning

The beginning of 2020, from a real estate perspective, has been nothing short of sensational. A healthy transaction count and property values firing on all cylinders. Like most resort markets around the world, iridescent sunny blue skies all around us.

However, while Q1 numbers show another strong performing period, this article is broken into two distinctive parts. One of pre Friday, March 13th and one of post March 13th 2020, when sunny blue skies turned, well…

The March Headlines You Want to Know

As I mentioned above, according to media reports, there is a pre and post 03/13/2020 world that appears to be so seismic that March 2020 could be remembered as the transitional moment from the best of times, to the worst of times. 

And while sales tell the past, and big closing numbers get all the headlines. It’s every individual new contract that truly forecasts the current and immediate future outlook. Without new contracts, there are no new sales – it is a very cause and effect relationship. A healthy transactional pool keeps the market moving.

With that said, I would like to give some insight into current market conditions by diving into a statistic not generally available to the public, let’s call it — the New Contract Volume (NCV) statistic.

The Explanation: Taking what began on 03/13/2020 called current market conditions and comparing this time to the then (01/01/2020 – 03/12/2020), known as normal market conditions. The goal was to come up with a new contract per day average figure and compare the current conditions with the historical normal.

The Onderko Index (TOI) Where we are now, compared to where we were then.

The Forecast: The higher the % above the norm, the stronger prices will remain. The lower % or negative % from the norm, the more prices will soften for properties that need to sell in the immediate and near future.

TOI – Somewhat bold, shameless, and fully self-proclaimed, yet valid.

As of 04/07/2020

Date Range & Region # Days # New Contracts
Avg # Contract/Day
01/01/2020 – 03/12/2020 72
Maui 588 8.2
West Maui 134 1.9
Date Range & Region # Days # New Contracts Avg # Contract/Day % + or – norm
03/13/2020 – 04/07/2020 25
Maui 75 3.0 63%
West Maui 20 0.8 -57%


$3M+ Sales

Date Range & Region # Days # New Contracts
Avg # Contract/Day
01/01/2020 – 03/12/2020 72
Maui 18 0.3
West Maui 7 0.1
Date Range & Region # Days # New Contracts Avg # Contract/Day % + or – norm
03/13/2020 – 04/07/2020 25
Maui 7 0.3 12%
West Maui 3 0.1 23%

*data compiled from Maui MLS

March 2020 & Q1 Headlines

  • 80 sales in March | 2nd best monthly total in 10+ years | For comparison the 2019 average sales/month is 65
  • 208 transactions for Q1 | +6% over 2019
  • Median Sales Prices (+ or – % 2019) Homes $1.425M (+15%), Condos $648K (+11%) & Land $587K (-22%)

  • Highest priced sales
    • Home – $10.5M in Napili’s Hale Malia neighborhood
    • Condo – $2.7M at the Kaanapali Alii
  • Lowest priced sales
    • Home – $804K in Kahana’s, Kapau Village neighborhood
    • Condo – $273K (FS)  at Maui Lani Terraces in <Honokowai

Want to Know More?

The Onderko Index (TOI) will be updated regularly in its own independent format. Please subscribe to my blog to receive weekly updates.

If you are in the market for buying or selling West Maui real estate or have any questions about the area or the market in general, please feel free to contact me. I welcome the opportunity to give you information on my previous sales performance and marketing strategies. Or if you’re curious about what your property is worth in today’s market, it would be my pleasure to provide you with property information and a value assessment free of any sales pitch.

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About the Author

Jeff Onderko

Jeff Onderko is a REALTOR Broker with Hawai'i Life. West Maui Real Estate Broker, and ultra enthusiastic advocate of Maui's Lahaina, Kaanapali and Kapalua areas. I truly believe it's an honor & privilege to call Hawaii home. For 17 years now, West Maui is where I live, work and play. My team and I specialize in resort market home and condominium sales striving to deliver the highest level of professional service possible. With $50M+ sold, a panache for extensive statistical research and 100+ published real estate articles since 2015. I'm relevant, information driven and responsive. I bring a passionate energy, an entrepreneurial understanding and a client-first approach to my real estate business. Prior to becoming a Realtor, I was an independent publisher, starting and operating Maui, Kauai and Hawaii Real Estate Weeklies, Maui Time Weekly (partner), and in 2005, I was a Mayors Small Business Award finalist. In 2009, after seeing the demand and living in an under serviced pet market, alongside my Mom, Susan we opened West Maui Pet Supply. I started my career after college as an account executive with Orlando Weekly ultimately becoming their Advertising Director. Then I moved on to Advertising Sales Manager at Orange County Weekly, in Southern California. I am native of Detroit, Michigan, but grew up in Florida splitting time between Miami, Orlando and Cocoa Beach, Fl. I was a scholarship soccer player at the University of Central Florida and graduated with a BA from their School of Communication. Always attracted to healthy lifestyle, adventure, great weather, water sports and the outdoors, I moved to Maui in the summer of 2002. When the Realtor hat comes off, I'm active in the community coaching U-14 Boys Soccer (AYSO - West Side Pride) and I still play in the West Maui open division. I'm involved along with other fellow Hawaii Life comrades volunteering regularly at the Ka Hale A Ke Ola Shelter in West Maui and I'm on the Board of the Hawaii Life Charitable Fund. Through the outlet of the WM Pet Supply, I was heavily involved with the Maui Humane Society & ASCPA getting animals adopted & spayed/neutered. When I have free time you'll find me surfing, golfing, at the gym, a regular at yoga class, hanging at home with my animals or working in the backyard on my organic micro-farm (aka: food garden). You can email me at or via phone at (808) 280-4881.

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