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Some Very Surprising Resort Statistics for the Big Island of Hawaii

Villages At Mauna Lani—only 3 active listings           Waikoloa Colon Villas—only 2 active listings

We were compiling some stats on resort area sales and found some surprising numbers. The chart below shows some of the major condo complexes in the Waikoloa Beach Resort, the Mauna Lani Resort, and one in Kona. We’re comparing sales for the past year (April 24 to one year back) and current active inventory. (Data from Hawaii Information Service.)

Condo                # of units sold in past year            # active listings now on market

Villages at ML                       16                                                                         3

Kulalani                                  8                                                                          2

Beach Villas                           30                                                                        4

Alii Cove                                15                                                                          2

Colony Villas                         22                                                                         2

Fairways at ML                     13                                                                         7

Kamilo                                     4                                                                         4

Halii Kai                                  21                                                                       16*

Fairway Villas                        11                                                                        12

Golf Villas                                9                                                                        10

Kolea                                        9                                                                         16

Palm Villas                               1                                                                         4

*also has additional developer inventory, not on MLS

Now the hard part. What do the stats mean? If you look at the top of the list, what jumps out is the shockingly low inventory at some of the complexes that have been hit hard over the past few years with short sales and REOs. For example, Colony Villas was selling almost 2 units a month for the past year. With only 2 on the market they have, statistically, about a one month supply!

Fairways at ML, on the other hand, has almost a 6 month supply, which is still a fairly high turnover rate. Consider Alii Cove with 200 units in the complex and only 2 on the market. Last year, there was a full page of listings.

We think that most of the distressed inventory has been wrung out of the market in many of these complexes. The inventory numbers are dramatically different than they were even a year ago when the market was flooded with distressed property. And we’re almost seeing a stalemate between prices and inventory, neither one is going up at the moment. Over time though, unless new inventory gets dumped on the market, the demand for resort condos will have to cause prices to slowly move up.

Consider this quote:

“Statistics: the only science that enables different experts, using the same figures, to draw different conclusions” Evan Esar

We have lots of experts in the Hawaii Life universe, so we invite you to comment on these statistics and share your point of view.

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Erik Hinshaw

April 25, 2011

Dan & Marion, Great info. It something I think all of us agents are seeing and sensing. Here in Kona the complexes that were the hardest hit the soonest with foreclosures are the ones with the least inventory now for the most part. The good deals in these are gone For example the Bali Kai had units selling in the low $200Ks last year. There were 18 sales and now there is only one on the market. The most recent sale was in the $300K’s. A huge price increase.

I am now directing buyers to complexes that have had few foreclosures yet where prices have remained high and sales low. For example a favorite complex of mine is Kanaloa.This is an older luxury complex with few distressed properties. Only three sales in the last year and 18 currently listed for sale. Three agents with Hawaii Life, myself included have been able to negotiate incredible deals for buyers in there. In fact two of the three sales last year were due to buyers brought by Hawaii Life. The buyers I helped get an incredible deal are thrilled. They didn’t think they could afford a place in there but we kept trying until we found a seller that was ready to make a deal. You have to work a bit harder to find the deal but they are still around. I wouldnt wait too much longer.

Erik Hinshaw

April 25, 2011

Dan & Marion, Great info. It something I think all of us agents are seeing and sensing. Here in Kona the complexes that were the hardest hit the soonest with foreclosures are the ones with the least inventory now for the most part. The good deals in these are gone For example the Bali Kai had units selling in the low $200Ks last year. There were 18 sales and now there is only one on the market. The most recent sale was in the $300K’s. A huge price increase.

I am now directing buyers to complexes that have had few foreclosures yet where prices have remained high and sales low. For example a favorite complex of mine is Kanaloa.This is an older luxury complex with few distressed properties. Only three sales in the last year and 18 currently listed for sale. Three agents with Hawaii Life, myself included have been able to negotiate incredible deals for buyers in there. In fact two of the three sales last year were due to buyers brought by Hawaii Life. The buyers I helped get an incredible deal are thrilled. They didn’t think they could afford a place in there but we kept trying until we found a seller that was ready to make a deal. You have to work a bit harder to find the deal but they are still around. I wouldnt wait too much longer.

Beth Thoma Robinson R(B)

April 26, 2011

I’m glad that many of us are seeing the same thing and trying to report it. Some of the buyers who missed out a year ago are in denial and grab at straws for why if they continue to wait they will find deals better than the ones they missed. If I hear one more time that “the situation in Japan” is going to create their next buying opportunity I may stop being polite about it.

I like what Erik said. What distinguishes us as agents will be our ability to go the extra mile for the buyers to find the best deal on what they want…and to go the extra mile for sellers to get them what the market will allow in the time frame they eant.

Beth Thoma Robinson R(B)

April 26, 2011

I’m glad that many of us are seeing the same thing and trying to report it. Some of the buyers who missed out a year ago are in denial and grab at straws for why if they continue to wait they will find deals better than the ones they missed. If I hear one more time that “the situation in Japan” is going to create their next buying opportunity I may stop being polite about it.

I like what Erik said. What distinguishes us as agents will be our ability to go the extra mile for the buyers to find the best deal on what they want…and to go the extra mile for sellers to get them what the market will allow in the time frame they eant.

Marion Fumento

April 26, 2011

Thank you Eric and Beth for your feedback. It is becoming a very different market now- with any good deal that comes on the market being snapped up in no time. Many times I have had inquiries about a property only to find out that an offer has just been accepted and that in some cases there is even a backup offer. Serious buyers would be well advised to be prepared to move fast when they see something.

Marion Fumento

April 26, 2011

Thank you Eric and Beth for your feedback. It is becoming a very different market now- with any good deal that comes on the market being snapped up in no time. Many times I have had inquiries about a property only to find out that an offer has just been accepted and that in some cases there is even a backup offer. Serious buyers would be well advised to be prepared to move fast when they see something.

Katie Minkus, R(BIC)

April 27, 2011

Very interesting statistics! I’m going to send your blog to all our buyers who are waiting around for someone to ring the bell that we’ve hit “bottom.” I’m with Beth, a little tired of being polite about how Japan, or the reo “shadow” inventory or the “double dip” is going to affect our market. What many people don’t seem to grasp is that this is a RESORT and second home market, and it is Hawaii, after all. It’s simply not accurate to compare Hawaii to Las Vegas or Phoenix, or even San Diego. And with our main buyer market, the CA Bay Area, seeing an improved economy and more employment in the tech industry than at the height of the dot-com boom, I agree that buyers better not wait and need to be prepared to move fast, or those “early adopters” in the tech world will have bought up all the best deals. Or perhaps, they already have.

Katie Minkus, R(BIC)

April 27, 2011

Very interesting statistics! I’m going to send your blog to all our buyers who are waiting around for someone to ring the bell that we’ve hit “bottom.” I’m with Beth, a little tired of being polite about how Japan, or the reo “shadow” inventory or the “double dip” is going to affect our market. What many people don’t seem to grasp is that this is a RESORT and second home market, and it is Hawaii, after all. It’s simply not accurate to compare Hawaii to Las Vegas or Phoenix, or even San Diego. And with our main buyer market, the CA Bay Area, seeing an improved economy and more employment in the tech industry than at the height of the dot-com boom, I agree that buyers better not wait and need to be prepared to move fast, or those “early adopters” in the tech world will have bought up all the best deals. Or perhaps, they already have.

Richard

April 27, 2011

The contrarian non-RA might point out that banks are being negligent NOT proceeding against delinquent mortgages. As the local Big Island RA’s know, some HOA’s have resorted to taking property titles in legal proceedings!!!!! My research on the Big Island shows about 3% of condos sold between 2002 to 2008 ranging with a sales price of $450,000 to $1,00,000 are ……NOT…… currently listed for sale on the MLS while the underlying mortgage is in default. They will get to the market at some point, probably once the government stops writing checks. We are seeing the same thing on mainland ….. people are literally living in their million dollar home and have not made a mortgage payment for 2 years….. the loan modification game submitted every 4-6 months. Some people bought the DOW on the last dip to 6500 and some sold. How many time will the DOW re-trace 30% in one’s life …. stats can guide you.

Last April, Makena/Wailea Maui condos listings totaled 163, by Sept 2010 they were down to 112 and Jan 2011 back up to 161 …. I can’t remember a time in the last twenty years where there were 15 active listings at Wailea Point! Stats … 2011, it’s a first.

Perspective my friends,
Aloha!

Richard

April 27, 2011

The contrarian non-RA might point out that banks are being negligent NOT proceeding against delinquent mortgages. As the local Big Island RA’s know, some HOA’s have resorted to taking property titles in legal proceedings!!!!! My research on the Big Island shows about 3% of condos sold between 2002 to 2008 ranging with a sales price of $450,000 to $1,00,000 are ……NOT…… currently listed for sale on the MLS while the underlying mortgage is in default. They will get to the market at some point, probably once the government stops writing checks. We are seeing the same thing on mainland ….. people are literally living in their million dollar home and have not made a mortgage payment for 2 years….. the loan modification game submitted every 4-6 months. Some people bought the DOW on the last dip to 6500 and some sold. How many time will the DOW re-trace 30% in one’s life …. stats can guide you.

Last April, Makena/Wailea Maui condos listings totaled 163, by Sept 2010 they were down to 112 and Jan 2011 back up to 161 …. I can’t remember a time in the last twenty years where there were 15 active listings at Wailea Point! Stats … 2011, it’s a first.

Perspective my friends,
Aloha!

Annie Mendoza, (RS)

April 29, 2011

Hmmm…all very good perspective from both sides; RA and contrarian. Mahalo

Annie Mendoza, (RS)

April 29, 2011

Hmmm…all very good perspective from both sides; RA and contrarian. Mahalo

Jon

May 5, 2011

A local RA agent tells me a 2 bedroom / 2 bath in Waikoloa Beach Resort may go into escrow well below between $200,000 and $250,000. Sounds like the agent did a great job for the buyer here!

Should be an interesting summer after reading the above posts!

Jon

May 5, 2011

A local RA agent tells me a 2 bedroom / 2 bath in Waikoloa Beach Resort may go into escrow well below between $200,000 and $250,000. Sounds like the agent did a great job for the buyer here!

Should be an interesting summer after reading the above posts!

Jon

May 5, 2011

that should say well below 250K …….

Jon

May 5, 2011

that should say well below 250K …….

Jon

May 9, 2011

From marketwatch …. “Average home prices are down 8% from a year ago, 3% over the quarter, and are falling at about 1% every month, according to Zillow.

And the percentage of homeowners in negative-equity positions — with a home worth less than its mortgage — has rocketed to 28%, a new crisis high.

Zillow now predicts prices will fall about 8% this year and says it no longer expects the market to bottom before 2012”

Bank of Hawaii insider also predicts 2012 to be the bottom …..

Jon

May 9, 2011

From marketwatch …. “Average home prices are down 8% from a year ago, 3% over the quarter, and are falling at about 1% every month, according to Zillow.

And the percentage of homeowners in negative-equity positions — with a home worth less than its mortgage — has rocketed to 28%, a new crisis high.

Zillow now predicts prices will fall about 8% this year and says it no longer expects the market to bottom before 2012”

Bank of Hawaii insider also predicts 2012 to be the bottom …..

Dan Fumento (RS)

May 9, 2011

I think it’s hard to predict the future and even harder to make a “one size fits all” prediction. The USA consists of so many micro economies that it’s hard to see how one prediction could apply to Wichita, KS and Waikoloa, Hawaii at the same time and in the same time period. I think the only thing we can do is look at local statistics, keeping national trends in mind and interpret the local situation as best we can. When you live and work in an area, you get a “feel” for when things are changing.

Dan Fumento (RS)

May 9, 2011

I think it’s hard to predict the future and even harder to make a “one size fits all” prediction. The USA consists of so many micro economies that it’s hard to see how one prediction could apply to Wichita, KS and Waikoloa, Hawaii at the same time and in the same time period. I think the only thing we can do is look at local statistics, keeping national trends in mind and interpret the local situation as best we can. When you live and work in an area, you get a “feel” for when things are changing.

Daniel

May 11, 2011

Are banks finally ready to get rid of inventory as summer approaches…….????

Halii Kai 6E today reduced to $450,000…3bed/2bath. The listing agent is certain to find action soon or in 30-60 days. Trend coming or just a down-tick????? Will there another 50K chop in 30 days?

Aloha
Daniel

August 26, 2010, 1:07 pm Price $795,000 $695,000
October 15, 2010, 2:23 pm Price $695,000 $635,000
January 12, 2011, 9:24 am Price $635,000 $575,000
February 8, 2011, 10:18 am Price $575,000 $525,000
March 12, 2011, 9:43 am Price $525,000 $499,000
May 9, 2011, 1:42 pm Price $499,000 $450,000

Daniel

May 11, 2011

Are banks finally ready to get rid of inventory as summer approaches…….????

Halii Kai 6E today reduced to $450,000…3bed/2bath. The listing agent is certain to find action soon or in 30-60 days. Trend coming or just a down-tick????? Will there another 50K chop in 30 days?

Aloha
Daniel

August 26, 2010, 1:07 pm Price $795,000 $695,000
October 15, 2010, 2:23 pm Price $695,000 $635,000
January 12, 2011, 9:24 am Price $635,000 $575,000
February 8, 2011, 10:18 am Price $575,000 $525,000
March 12, 2011, 9:43 am Price $525,000 $499,000
May 9, 2011, 1:42 pm Price $499,000 $450,000

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