We often invite guests to write articles about their respective market’s performance over the past month (it’s been a bit hit). This month, David Buck, RA is writes about November’s market on Oahu real estate…
Remember when the Dow Jones plunged, the “bailout” talks started & the sky was falling? A lot of that was mid September. Any listings going into contract then would equate to November closings! I unfortunately had 3 transactions fall apart during all this. Guess what? We’re all still alive & breathing, and I’ve since put several transactions back under contract. As predicted, November 2008 would be an interesting month for Oahu sales:
Through the month of November, everything seemed to be down across the board. Year to date, our total volume of sales on Oahu is down from $4.65 Billion to $3.447 Billion. This is a 25.9% decrease from 2007. The total number of sales on the island is also down over 30% (the reason why our volume is down less than sales is there were some monumental sales in Diamond Head and Kailua). Our median sales price for a single family home is also down at $594,500 which is the 3rd time in the past 3 years we’ve dipped under the $600,000 mark. Condos were also down with a median sales price of $316,000 which actually wasn’t as bad as November. There are two areas of interest to note that stuck out at me in November:
1. The number of Condo sales on Oahu was 201, down from 316 the previous month and the lowest number of sales since 1999!
2. The average number of days on market for condos was 88, up from 53 the previous month and the longest time on market since 2000!
The condo market is slowing down dramatically. There were months over the past year when there were more sales in a single project than there have been on the entire island in November! What’s also interesting is that over 500 new condo listing that came on market. Existing inventory is 2,655 units, actually down from 2,663 the previous month.
Well if 500+ came on market & only just over 200 sold, how is inventory down? A number of reasons: sellers pulling their place off the market to rent (I have several clients considering this) or the listing could have expired. If only 200 units sold and 2655 are on market, as a seller you have to ask yourself: What will it take to get my place in the less than 10% of listings that are actually selling?
The answer is PRICE! Places that are priced right will sell!
What does this mean for buyers? Since both homes and condos are sitting on the market longer, sellers are motivated, you can get a better buy than you could over the last few years. And, interest rates are back to the low 5% range!