Q2 2023 Real Estate Market Report Sheds Light on Hawaii’s Decade-Long Market Trends

Making Sense of Hawaii’s Dynamic Real Estate Market and 10-Year Growth Patterns

Featuring insights into decade-long market trends, the Hawaii Life Real Estate Market Report explores the 10-year appreciation data behind market volatility and what the current Q2 2023 data suggests about the direction the market is heading.

In this market report, we’ll look at Hawaii’s market trends over the last 10 years and reveal how much housing prices have grown, why prices go up and down sharply at times, and what the most recent data from Q2 2023 tells us about where the market might be headed.

Behind the Numbers

A look back at Hawaii’s real estate market indicates that active inventory on Oahu reached the lowest point in February 2022 for homes and March for condos before beginning its ascent, ushering a subsequent rise observed across the island chain. On Maui, active inventory for homes and condos reached the lowest point in March 2022 and has been steadily rising since then while Kauai’s active residential inventory reached the lowest point in April 2022 before resuming a steady, albeit slow, rise. As for the Big Island of Hawaii, active inventory for homes and condos reached the lowest point in Q2 of 2022, but has since maintained a steady growth rate consistent across the state. 

In terms of days on market (DOM), Maui witnessed a consistent upward trend for all property types as of spring of 2022 and Oahu’s DOM has been inching upward for all property types since July 2022. Since August 2022, the Big Island’s days on market has been on the rise for all property types, with Kauai following suit since October 2022.

On Maui and Hawaii Island, there was a peak of inactivity for most markets at the dawn of 2023, followed by an upward trend in sales figures for residences since January. Similarly, Oahu and Kauai experienced a peak of inactivity for most markets as the year began, followed by a rise in sales figures for homes and condos that commenced in January. 

Although 2023 started off slow, the current data strongly suggests a resurgence of sales activity on all four islands if the rise in inventory and DOM persist, especially if mortgage rates descend from their July 2023 peak.

10-Year Median Home Value

Currently standing at $1.03M, Oahu’s median sold price has grown +61% in the last decade while Hawaii Island’s median home value is $495k, an increase of +52% over the past 10 years. 

Maui’s median home value currently stands at $1.150M, an impressive uptick of +111% over the past 10 years when taking a long-view perspective. And Kauai’s median home value has seen the most impressive growth, soaring to $1.173M, which is a remarkable increase of +121% over the last decade.

The long-term data of the past 10 years gives an accurate picture of the state of Oahu’s real estate market, revealing a substantial upward trajectory and illustrating an enduring appreciation trend. The real estate markets on Hawaii Island and Kauai have also experienced a significant appreciation in value over the past decade. On Maui, decade-long trends in the real estate market underscore a sustained growth in property values, a trajectory that notably surpasses the heightened appreciation witnessed during the pandemic period.

Looking Forward

The value of a single-family home purchased in 2012 on Oahu and Hawaii Island, as indicated by the Median Price each year, both saw a dramatic increase over the last decade, despite the high volatility observed in the market since the onset of the pandemic. No stranger to the turbulence of the pandemic, the value of a single-family home purchased in 2012 on Maui has also seen a significant increase despite heightened volatility, as has Kaua’i. 

On Oahu, the appreciation was as high as 76% and Hawaii Island saw a 92.3% appreciation. Even as sales numbers began to decline from the summer of 2022, the appreciation hit 111% on Maui and as high as 121% on Kauai.

This resilience of median home prices across the chain of islands, however, is nuanced by several influencing factors. When looking at how property values have changed over the last 10 years, it’s important to consider that the real estate market became more capricious once the pandemic ended and interest rates started rising. 

With too few properties available for sale, there was an inconsistency in the types of properties being traded month over month, which resulted in fluctuations in the valuation of real estate on Hawaii Island, Kauai, Maui, and Oahu. As such, looking solely at this period for statistical analysis may fail to offer the most accurate picture of the state of Hawaii’s real estate market trajectory.

Over the past decade, the luxury real estate market in Hawai’i has experienced significant appreciation. This statewide value escalation highlights the importance of looking beyond the anomaly of the pandemic surge, as well as looking at what’s behind the data revealed in our Q2 2023 report. 

Full Report is Available Upon Request

Hawai’i Life’s real estate professionals possess the expertise, knowledge, and long-view perspective on Hawaii’s real estate market that you’re looking for. 

Do you have questions about this report? Let’s discuss it together! Contact us at hello@hawaiilife.com or comment below.