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Maui Real Estate | What’s Hot, What’s Not

While sales tell the past and big closing numbers get all the headlines, it’s every individual new contract that truly forecasts the current and immediate future outlook. Without new contracts, there are no new sales – it is a very cause and effect relationship as a healthy transactional pool keeps the market moving.

Aerial view of South Maui Coast, Hawaii

With that said, I am pleased to share…

The Onderko Index (TOI)

Where we are now, compared to where we were then. TOI – Somewhat bold, fully self-proclaimed…yet valid. With that said, I would like to give some insight into current market conditions by diving into a statistic not generally available to the public, let’s call it — the New Contract Volume (NCV) statistic.

New Contract Volume | Sales Per Day

Normal Market Conditions: 1/01 -3/12/2020

1/1/2020 – 3/12/2020

Region # of Days # New Contracts New Contract/Day % + or – Norm % New Contracts
Maui 72 575 8.0 100%
West Maui 130 1.8 23%
South Maui 219 3.0 38%
UpCountry 67 0.9 12%
Central 94 1.3 16%
North Shore 36 0.5 6%
East 2 0.03 0%
Molokai 23 0.3 4%
Lanai 4 0.1 1%

The Explanation: Taking what began on 03/13/2020 called current market conditions and comparing this time to the then (01/01/2020 – 03/12/2020), known as normal market conditions. The goal was to come up with a new contract per day average figure and compare the current conditions with the recent and, for the most part, modern-day normal.

Current Market Conditions: 3/13/2020 – Current

3/13/2020 – Current

Date Range Region # of Days # New Contracts New Contract/Day % + or – Norm % New Contracts
03/13/2020 – Current Maui 187 1072 5.7 -28% 100%
West Maui 227 1.2 -33% 21%
South Maui 323 1.7 -43% 30%
UpCountry 130 0.7 -25% 12%
Central 260 1.4 6% 24%
North Shore 92 0.5 -2% 9%
East 7 0.0 35% 1%
Molokai 25 0.1 -58% 2%
Lanai 8 0.0 -23% 1%

$3M+ Transactions

Date Range Region # of Days # New Contracts New Contract/Day % + or – Norm % New Contracts
03/13/2020 – Current Maui 187 38 0.2 -19% 48%
West Maui 18 0.1 -1% 47%
South Maui 19 0.1 -33% 50%
UpCountry 0 0.0 0% 0%
Central 0 0.0 100% 0%
North Shore 0 0.0 0% 0%
East 0 0.0 0% 0%
Molokai 0 0.0 0% 0%
Lanai 1 0.0 100% 3%

The Forecast: The higher the above the norm, the stronger prices will remain. The lower % or negative % from the normthe more prices will soften for properties that need to sell in the immediate and near future. The longer this lasts, the more impact we will see.

05/01/2020 – Current

Date Range Region # of Days # New Contracts New Contract/Day % + or – Norm % New Contracts
05/01/2020 – Current Maui 138 932 6.8 -15% 100%
West Maui 196 1.4 -21% 21%
South Maui 286 2.1 -32% 31%
UpCountry 107 0.8 -17% 11%
Central 227 1.6 26% 24%
North Shore 82 0.6 19% 9%
East 7 0.1 83% 1%
Molokai 22 0.2 -50% 2%
Lanai 5 0.0 -35% 1%

$3M+ Transactions

Date Range Region # of Days # New Contracts New Contract/Day % + or – Norm % New Contracts
05/01/2020 – Current Maui 138 30 0.2 -13% 100%
West Maui 14 0.1 4% 47%
South Maui 16 0.1 -24% 53%
UpCountry 0 0.0 0% 0%
Central 0 0.0 0% 0%
North Shore 0 0.0 0% 0%
East 0 0.0 0% 0%
Molokai 0 0.0 0% 0%
Lanai 0 0.0 0% 0%

Normal Market Conditions: % New Contracts vs. Region

Current Market Conditions: % New Contracts vs. Region

If you are in the market for buying or selling Maui real estate or have any questions about the area or the market in general, please feel free to contact me. I welcome the opportunity to give you information on my previous sales performance and marketing strategies. Or if you’re curious about what your property is worth in today’s market, it would be my pleasure to provide you with property information and a value assessment free of any sales pitch.

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About the Author

Jeff Onderko

Jeff Onderko is a REALTOR Broker with Hawai'i Life. West Maui Real Estate Broker, and ultra enthusiastic advocate of Maui's Lahaina, Kaanapali and Kapalua areas. I truly believe it's an honor & privilege to call Hawaii home. For 17 years now, West Maui is where I live, work and play. My team and I specialize in resort market home and condominium sales striving to deliver the highest level of professional service possible. With $50M+ sold, a panache for extensive statistical research and 100+ published real estate articles since 2015. I'm relevant, information driven and responsive. I bring a passionate energy, an entrepreneurial understanding and a client-first approach to my real estate business. Prior to becoming a Realtor, I was an independent publisher, starting and operating Maui, Kauai and Hawaii Real Estate Weeklies, Maui Time Weekly (partner), and in 2005, I was a Mayors Small Business Award finalist. In 2009, after seeing the demand and living in an under serviced pet market, alongside my Mom, Susan we opened West Maui Pet Supply. I started my career after college as an account executive with Orlando Weekly ultimately becoming their Advertising Director. Then I moved on to Advertising Sales Manager at Orange County Weekly, in Southern California. I am native of Detroit, Michigan, but grew up in Florida splitting time between Miami, Orlando and Cocoa Beach, Fl. I was a scholarship soccer player at the University of Central Florida and graduated with a BA from their School of Communication. Always attracted to healthy lifestyle, adventure, great weather, water sports and the outdoors, I moved to Maui in the summer of 2002. When the Realtor hat comes off, I'm active in the community coaching U-14 Boys Soccer (AYSO - West Side Pride) and I still play in the West Maui open division. I'm involved along with other fellow Hawaii Life comrades volunteering regularly at the Ka Hale A Ke Ola Shelter in West Maui and I'm on the Board of the Hawaii Life Charitable Fund. Through the outlet of the WM Pet Supply, I was heavily involved with the Maui Humane Society & ASCPA getting animals adopted & spayed/neutered. When I have free time you'll find me surfing, golfing, at the gym, a regular at yoga class, hanging at home with my animals or working in the backyard on my organic micro-farm (aka: food garden). You can email me at JeffOnderko@HawaiiLife.com or via phone at (808) 280-4881.

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