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Market Trends

Market Trends & Real Estate Statistics – 2nd Quarter, 2021

four quarter price change by state

If we look at the big picture, median home price, nationally, is up 12.6%, in the 2nd quarter of 2021 (year over year). This is the 14th consecutive quarterly increase in median price and the highest quarterly gain in several decades. All 50 states, including the District of Columbia, had positive gains.

percent change in home prices

The top three gains, in the US, were experienced in the Mountain Region by Idaho, Utah & Arizona with about a 20% average gain.

united states change in home prices

The state of Hawaii came in last, for price appreciation, with an increase of 4.65%, on average.

bottom 20 metropolitan areas ranked by annual appreciation

The City and County of Honolulu, on average, was down .65% and is 100th in the country for price appreciation.  This low number is probably due to the large concentration of condos in the urban core of Honolulu and the “Donut Effect.”

Paul Brewbaker, local economist, says the “price jump was all in SF homes, not condos.”

oahu single family home price appreciation 2020

This chart demonstrates the “Donut Effect,” and how price appreciation was experienced most greatly in the neighborhoods outside of the urban core. For example, “the suburbs, exurbs and zoom towns”

single family home sales

Hawaii Kai is an example of a “neighborhood outside of the urban core. Its numbers for June 202 are clearly demonstrate the “Donut Effect” occurring. We saw a 33% increase in closings, 57% decrease in days on market and a median price increase of 21%.

economic activity index for hawaii

Hawaii’s Economic Activity Index has recovered from the lows of 78.31 points in May 2020, to 117.17. This 2nd quarter number is off just ~10% of Hawaii’s all-time high, peak of 129.56 in Feb, 2020.

hawaii tourism visitor statistics

Arrivals and spending, in May 2020, were back within 26% and 22%, respectively, of the record-level state highs in May 2019.

hawaii outlook for the eonomy

We can see unemployment numbers are consistently dropping from the highs of 19.4% in 2nd quarter, 2020 to 9% down in 1st quarter, 2021.

st louis fed financial stress index

The financial stress index is at -.98 points, which is much better than the highs we saw at 5 points, back in March, 2020. And 9 points in 2008’s financial collapse.

30 year fixed rate mortgage graph

Mortgage rates are historically low and fueling demand for real estate. (Source: fred.Stlouisfed.org)

oahu housing supply

Oahu has a 1.2 months supply of single-family and 2.1 months of condominiums. This means that at the current sales rate, there would be no more homes for sale in 1-2 months. 6 months of supply is considered a “balanced market.” Anything less a “seller’s market” and greater than 6 months is a “buyer’s market.” (Source: hicentral.com)

single family home sales and condo sales price

With a tight supply and demand kept high with low interest rates, it is no wonder that Oahu’s average sales price hit $1,225,011 for single-family and $557,302 for condominiums in June. Up 36.2% and 15.8%, respectively. (Source: hicentral.com)

oahu hawaii median days on market

Days on market is a good measure of “market velocity” or how quickly homes are selling. In June, market velocity for single-family homes is about 8 days for SFH and 11 days for condos. These numbers are down about 60% for single-family homes and 73% of condominiums, year over year. (Source: hicentral.com)

foreign and us buyer statistics

Where are Oahu’s buyers coming from? Foreign investment on Oahu, in the 1st quarter of 2021, is down ~62% to 83%, from the top investors of Japan, Canada & Korea, compared to first quarter totals in 2019. ~86% of the trades on Oahu are “local transactions” between residents of Hawaii. California and New York buyers represented 5% and 3% of sales volume in the first quarter of 2021.

unemployment rate in hawaii

Hawaii’s unemployment rate has dropped from April 2019’s highs of about one in five people (~22%), down to 7.7%, as of June 2021. (Source: fred.Stlouisfed.org)

In summary, for the 2nd quarter of 2021, prices are up due to low supply and high demand. Properties are selling 60-73% quicker. The financial stress indicator is low, unemployment has come down from 1 in 5 people to ~8%, and Hawaii’s economy is within 10% of record levels prior to C19.

Aloha,

Jake

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