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Surprising Halii Kai Condo Sales Update – October 2017

Halii Kai, the oceanfront condo community at Waikoloa Beach Resort, is having a strong year for sales. Moving into the last quarter of 2017, there have been thirteen sales and three units are in escrow. In 2016, a total of ten Halii Kai condos sold, and in 2015, there were only seven sales at the complex.

Classic ocean view across the signature hole of the golf course from Halii Kai 11A (MLS 601519)

Halii Kai Sales Up in 2017, Some Surprises on Pricing

With the number of Halii Kai condo sales in 2017 more than double what they were in 2015, and the number of listings down, Economics 101 says that prices should be increasing. But the data donʻt actually show that, at least on the surface, as the median price remains virtually unchanged over 3 years. The oft-quoted median price turns out to be fairly meaningless.

Here are the summary statistics for the 13 sales closed so far this year:

Summary – Halii Kai Condo Sales 2017 YTD

# Lowest Highest Average Median Mode
Listings 13 $525,000 $1,495,000 $778,061 $639,999 $549,000
MLS Sale $ 13 $510,000 $1,495,000 $752,731 $619,000 N/A
DOM to sale 13 25 373 155 115 25
Sale/Current Price 13 92.8% 100.0% 96.7% 96.5% 100.0%

Recall that at Halii Kai, all 24 buildings are identical, but the prices on similar units vary dramatically depending on location and view. Looking at individual similar units yields some surprising conclusions.

Halii Kai Oceanfront Case Study: The top 2017 sale, oceanfront 3-bedroom Halii Kai 15F at $1,495,000, is the highest price achieved at Halii Kai since 2008. However, the 2008 sale was the same unit, at the time my listing, which sold for $2,050,000. At the market peak, the developer price on a 3 bed/3 bath Halii Kai oceanfront condo was over $2.4 million. The lowest price recorded as a short sale on a comparable unit was only $1.1 million.  Summary: for the largest floorplan and direct oceanfront view, this yearʻs Halii Kai price is almost 40% below the peak but 36% above the bottom.

Halii Kai Garden-view Case Study: On the other end of the spectrum, the lowest priced Halii Kai condo sale in 2017 was a 2 bed/2 bath ground floor unit, the smallest floorplan, located in the garden view “Coconut Grove” area. Halii Kai 22B sold for $510,000 this year and 23c sold for $533,000 in September. Note the highest developer sales of this floorplan in the Grove were $499,000 and the lowest price on a foreclosed unit was $317,000. Summary: this yearʻs sale of 23C set a new high price for the smallest floorplan with garden view, and is 68% above the bottom.

Thirteen Halii Kai Condos for Sale: Where the Best Buys Are

Halii Kai 2 Bedroom CoconutGrove

Larger 2 bedroom in Coconut Grove listed for $599,000 is current lowest priced Halii Kai condo for sale (MLS 606624)

If you are looking for a less volatile purchase, the lowest priced Halii Kai condo is an upstairs 2 bedroom in the Coconut Grove, offered for $599,000.

Both of the two-bedroom 0cean view units mentioned in my 2016 blog post at the then-median sales price of $750,000 are currently in escrow. Although based upon the stats we can assume that they will sell for less than asking price, that still makes my colleagueʻs recent “best buy” pick of Halii Kai 5G, the large 3 bed/3bath asking $899,500, look good on a $/sq ft basis for a golf/ocean view. The furnishings in this one cost over $100,000.

Current listings include furnishings like Halii Kai 9H, while the developer sales prices were unfurnished.

If you are looking for the same kind of upside the oceanfront Halii Kai condo buyer locked on this year, there are no oceanfront condos currently listed. However, many buyers actually prefer the ocean view down the fairway of the Waikoloa Beach golf course. Two attractive options are Halii Kai 11A, priced at $994,000 (MLS 601519) which is 37% below the developer sale, and Halii Kai 9H, priced at $975,000 (MLS 603857), 26% below the developer price. Both come fully furnished and Halii Kai 11A has a strong book of vacation rentals in place.

A hui hou,

Beth Thoma Robinson R(B)

Direct: 808.443.4588

Email: beth@hawaiilife.com

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Pam Deery

October 13, 2017

Thank you Beth for the great info. The outlook for the resort market this winter is good!

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