This time last year I wrote a 2023 real estate market review specifically for Kolea at Waikoloa Beach Resort. I write the review every year and follow this resort complex more intensely than most for multiple reasons:
- It is the only residential community on the Kohala Coast with direct beach access that includes condominiums as well as single family homes
- Because of its higher price points (reflecting the uniqueness of the beachfront location as well as the quality of the villas), it has consistently had a stronger inventory of active listings than some Kohala Coast condo complexes that at some times have had zero listings in recent years.
- I sold for the developer pre-construction, so have kept a spreadsheet of resales since the very beginning – a handy way for me to track comparables in a community with different building types and views.
This private gate leads from the Kolea at Waikoloa Beach Resort pool area, past historic anchialine ponds, to the white sand beach at Anaehoʻomalu Bay
Kolea Condo Sales Steady in 2024 Versus 2023 After Record Sales Deplete Inventory in 2021-2023
The same story played out all along the Kohala Coast resorts post-pandemic: record sales resulted in much higher prices and fewer options listed than at any time since the Kolea condominiums were built in 2003-2005.
In 2024 there were five sales at Kolea, compared with four sales in 2023. Three of those sales were in the 12-plex buildings, two 2-bedroom units and one of the rarer 3 bed/2bath ground floor condo. Two of the sales were in the front row 6-plex buildings, including the highest priced sale, second floor 7E for $3,100,000 in a private off-market sale. The other sale was also a second floor, and sold for only $2,500,000 but with extenuating circumstances that meant the sales price was well below market. This was a unit that had been rented by the condo association after the owner defaulted and stopped paying AOAO dues. It was a short sale (the bank loan was more than the lender received) and required payment of a substantial AOAO lien.
The average sales price was consistent with what a similar unit would have sold for in 2023.
| KOLEA SALES | Lowest | Highest | Average | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listing Price | 5 | $1,750,000 | $3,550,000 | $2,345,000 | $1,875,000 |
| MLS Sale $ | 5 | $1,685,000 | $3,100,000 | $2,172,000 | $1,875,000 |
| DOM to sale | 5 | 0 | 218 | 67 | 52 |
| Sale/Current Price | 5 | 87.30% | 100% | 93.97% | 96.20% |
Kolea Condos for Sale – Searching for 2024 Best Buys
Kolea 4A – MLS 712964 – seems to be the most realistically priced listing in the front row six-plex Kolea buildings
There were only nine Kolea condominium listings this time in 2023; with eleven current listings, the buyer has choices to suit a variety of budgets and preferences – as long as the buyer prefers the larger, more expensive and exclusive villas in the six-plex buildings.
There are only three active listings of two-bedroom units. Two are interior, 1,270 sq ft units with decent ocean view, both asking $1,850,000. One of these sold in 2023 for $1,450,000 – and it is hard to see how the market is supporting an increase of $400,000.
The third listing is a larger 1,554 sq ft exterior two bedroom, peek of ocean view, asking $1,995,000. The kicker is this: another 1,554 unit is in escrow after a dramatic price reduction – asking $1,400,000 – still almost double pre-pandemic prices, but well below sale prices since 2022.
The only question in my mind is which two-bedroom owner will cave first.
Among the larger front row three-bedroom units, asking prices range from $2,900,000 ground floor 4A (beautiful furnishings, all the upgrades, and a strong vacation rental history) to $3,650,000 for top floor 6C (original owner, never rented).
My analysis? We have not had a top floor sale since 2022 – and 1C is listed at $3,695,000 – $1 million below what the Seller paid in 2022. With a second floor trading for $3,100,000 (albeit in an off market sale) in 2024, the two current listings, asking $500,000 more for a less desirable location, also seem unrealistic. The only ground floor, attached garage villa for sale in these buildings is 4A, listed for $2,900,000 with an offered credit of six months HOA dues. This unit was asking $3,300,000 a year ago and currently seems to be the most realistic seller among the six-plex listings.
Always happy to discuss my outlook for Kolea and the rest of the Kohala Coast market with interested buyers! I still maintain prices for Kolea and its sister project Halii Kai are great value compared with condos of similar quality at Mauna Lani Resort or Mauna Kea Resort – because the three most important factors in real estate continue to be Location, Location, Location.
Current Kolea Owner
March 27, 2025
I’m an owner in this community for the 2bed/2bath units and I would not buy at these artificially inflated prices. Our purchase was $700K just to add context on how dramatic the affordability changed during the pandemic. Our listing sat on the market for a few years before we purchased it. Motivated seller situation. This is supposed to eventually be our retirement place. Taxes (just recently assessed for $1.2M this year), the AOAO insurance went up dramatically following Lahaina fire so we have had some months where we pay upward to 5K to cover borrowing costs on loans to pay off the premium. The other owners that don’t rent want to put the burden of higher fees associated with non-family guests on those that supplement costs with rental income. Kind of frustrating considered our unit isn’t occupied for around 100 days of the year based upon occupancy percentage and personal use. It’s an us versus them mentality with those that live in Kolea full time. The only way we could ever get to that point is via self-management. We are likely the poorest owners that purchased in this community. I’m seeing a lot of downward pressure in prices in the surrounding units and I hope buyers make offers to bring them further down, because I would like for Hawaii to be more affordable for everyone.
Demand is softening with tourism. We notice the difference in our revenue. The owners that purchased at 1,400,000 to 1,700,000 are likely struggling to cover all the expenses especially if you aren’t self-managing like we are or they might be doing fine because they came in with a lot more reserve than we did.
It’s a good investment at the price we paid…not so good at current listing prices. My humble opinion.