Kaanapali Alii May 2014 Market Update: Cash is King as Prices Steadily Rise

In an ongoing effort to share my passion and expertise for the Kaanapali Alii, here on the beautiful island of Maui, Hawaii, I would like to start by sharing this May 2014 market update. Let’s start with what’s for sale in the complex.

Kaanapali Alii Resort

What’s for Sale at the Kaanapali Alii?

Currently, there are 14 private condominiums on the market including one bedroom, one bedroom plus den, two bedrooms, and two bedrooms plus den units.

If I break it down by category we’ll end up with 6 one bedroom plus den units for sale; 2 one bedroom units for sale; 3 two bedrooms plus den; 2 two bedrooms and 1 oceanfront two bedroom. Below is a table that breaks it down. Here is a gallery with photos of all Kaanapali Alii units.

Status MLS# Building Unit List Price LT Bed Bath Den View SqFt DOM

ACTIVE 359819 Kaanapali Alii 2-106 $1,200,000 Fee Simple 2 2 No Garden 1,666 74
ACTIVE 356072 Kaanapali Alii 1-104 $1,295,000 Fee Simple 1 1 No Garden 1,173 382
ACTIVE 352617 Kaanapali Alii 1-701 $1,375,000 Fee Simple 1 2 Yes Oceanview 1,441 699
ACTIVE 360115 Kaanapali Alii 4-903 $1,650,000 Fee Simple 1 2 Yes Mountain 1,313 49
ACTIVE 359285 Kaanapali Alii 1-401 $1,650,000 Fee Simple 1 2 Yes Partial OV 1,441 113
ACTIVE 360399 Kaanapali Alii 3-103 $1,675,000 Fee Simple 1 2 No Garden 1,173 26
ACTIVE 360290 Kaanapali Alii 4-1103 $1,750,000 Fee Simple 1 2 Yes Mountain 1,313 36
ACTIVE 358632 Kaanapali Alii 4-1001 $1,869,000 Fee Simple 1 2 Yes Oceanview 1,441 169
ACTIVE 359694 Kaanapali Alii 4-1102 $2,295,000 Fee Simple 1 2 Yes Oceanview 1,441 83
ACTIVE 357105 Kaanapali Alii 4-204 $2,700,000 Fee Simple 2 2 Yes Oceanview 1,675 295
ACTIVE 359787 Kaanapali Alii 1-903 $3,250,000 Fee Simple 2 2 No Oceanview 1,675 77
ACTIVE 360423 Kaanapali Alii 3-1003 $3,400,000 Fee Simple 2 2 No Oceanview 1,523 22
ACTIVE 352341 Kaanapali Alii 2-603 $3,700,000 Fee Simple 2 2.5 No Oceanview 1,673 728
ACTIVE 356217 Kaanapali Alii 3-706 $3,850,000 Fee Simple 2 2 No Ocean Front 1,676 369

Please ask me for the most recent inventory list and my recommendations for best buys in relation to your specific needs and budget. I know the inventory very well, have helped a number of buyer clients find some exceptional opportunities, and I am here to help you find what is best for you.

What Has Been Selling at Kaanapali Alii?

For the sake of simplicity and a larger sample set, let’s look at what has closed at Kaanapali Alii over the past year. I can privately email you a spreadsheet of all Kaanapali Alii closings if you would like to see it broken down in a spreadsheet fashion.

But let’s start with garden view one bedroom units. They are always going to be the most economical entry point into this exclusive resort. Two of them sold earlier last year for $820,000 (an exceptional value) and $1.125m. Even though both of them were on the first floor and on the less desirable “exterior side” of the building, I thought that they were a very good deal at the time.

There were two ocean view one bedroom units sold in the past year as well. They closed at $1.725m and $1.885m, and while neither of them were on higher floors with spectacular views, they were on the “interior side” of the complex and both had that Kaanapali Alii remodel throughout.

As we move onto the two bedrooms sold this past year, I’ll start with that ever elusive “sold before listed” unit people seek out at the Kaanapali Alii. Yes, it does happen…We sold a mountain view two bedroom with den for $1.595m at the beginning of this year. If you are interested in finding a “sold before listed” unit, not all is lost, contact me with your wish list and I’ll go on the hunt!

Two “interior” ocean view two bedroom units also closed late last year for $1.725m, $1.885 respectively. For the slight bump up in price from the mountain view unit, I think that these two closings were very good deals right now. At the time, they were not viewed as a great value. As happens many times in an increasing marketplace, condominiums sit and sit. When they finally sell is when I’ll get regretful phone calls from clients that didn’t pull the trigger.

Lastly comes the Kaanapali Alii’s very sexy and desirable beachfront units. In an uncharacteristic flurry of sales we closed four (yes, not a typo) beachfront units. It’s not often that I do a market analysis for the Kaanapali Alii and the most active category is oceanfront. The prices ranged between $3.5m and $3.775m. However, what you may not be shocked to hear is that all four buyers paid cash to be right where the action is.

Kaanapali Alii Beach

As I said above, if you would like a complete spreadsheet breakdown with unit numbers, location, view, and condition, please contact me. And know that your information is always confidential and private.

What Are the Best Deals at Kaanapali Alii?

As of today, here are my “deals” at the Kaanapali Alii. These are the ones I am pointing out to buyers interested in value.

1) #2-106; Is a two-bedroom corner unit on the first floor of building 2. Priced at $1.2m, it’s the lowest priced two bedroom in the Kaanapali Alii in over a year. While the location is not the best, the price is. As the old real estate saying goes…buy the cheapest thing in the most expensive neighborhood.

2) #4-204; Is a two-bedroom plus den, so it can act like a three bedroom for large families or extra guest space. Located on the interior side second floor of building 4. It has a nice partial ocean view over the pool and through landscaping. Completely remodeled, it’s a turnkey unit at $2.7m. Should prices continue on their current trend, this might be the next sale that only looks like a value after it’s gone.

3) #1-701; Is a one-bedroom plus den on the seventh floor of building 1 looking over the Kaanapali Westin Maui towards Kaanapali’s famous “Black Rock.” Now, this unit has been on the market for almost 700 days, but the seller has reduced their price twice in the past 60 days, finally indicating some motivation. Currently priced at $1.375m, I feel it might be the next one-bedroom sold.

My Market Predictions at the Kaanapali Alii

There are a number of ways to analyze sales data. I find that most Realtors have a fault of always being a cheerleader. Most are telling you just how great things are. Well, I’m not most Realtors. I like to tell you what I think even if it’s to my own detriment. I’d rather lose a sale and gain a friend. With that caveat, here is my quick analysis and predictions.

The current market absorption rate for the entire inventory at the Kaanapali Alii (11 sold units over the past year divided by 12 months) is .9166 units per month. Let’s just call it one per month for ease and because there is a unit currently in escrow. With 14 units remaining, there is about 14 months of inventory at the Kaanapali Alii. Yes, easy math, and yet it is also assuming an equal and steady rate of absorption.

The current average days on the market is 185 with a low of 22, a high of 728, and a median count of 90. If I toss out the DOM over a year and a half, the sample doesn’t move a whole bunch. The average is 142 and the median is 83. As a matter of fact, I did a bunch of sample sizes (bedroom count, sold, active, etc) and they all came out about the same. The average days and median days on the market is between 3 to 7 months.

Over the past 15 years I see the sales cycle at the Kaanapali Alii really is more of a flurry and then a lull; however, over time the trends seem to play out.

The current average list price is $2.321m while the year’s average sales price is $2.383m. Which is down about 3%. The current median list price is $1.897m while the year’s median sales price is $2.125m. Which is down about 11%. However, if I remove the oceanfront sales and listings (which tend to be their own animal and not subject to the same market trends) we see the median prices are exactly the same. The listing price average is up 18% over the average closed sales.

If we look at the current list prices and sales prices broken down category specific we see similar trends. In the breakdown of each category mentioned above, every current list price is above the comparable sales over the past year.

From the above data, this is what I see in the Kaanapali Alii. I see excess supply with 14 months of inventory in a 3-7 month cycle. I see overall prices rising. I see list prices above closed sale comparables. I see cash buyers paying big money, especially on the higher priced condos.

My prediction is that prices will continue to rise slowly. Look for a the traditional summer sales burst now that the kids are out of school and the occupancy at the Kaanapali Alii climbs. I also predict now that big money cash buyers are steadily growing, look for more activity around the big events here on Maui when the airport fills up with private planes. (i.e. Maui Film Festival, Maui Invitational, Hyundai Tournament of Champions)

Of course, these predictions will depend on the overall trends of the market and the world economy. From the frenzy of activity that we are seeing on Maui right now, I think we are headed in the right direction.

Buying at the Kaanapali Alii

I am here to educate Kaanapali Alii buyers – buying in this complex can be a confusing process with many details and seemingly opposing factors. I work in your best interest, not the seller’s or the listing agent’s. I have assisted numerous buyer clients acquire property at Kaanapali Alii, most recently a client from Southern California find an interior one-bedroom ocean view unit.

Even though above I talked about the number of cash buyers we are seeing, there are financing options at Kaanapali Alii as well. Contact me for more financing information, or check back here on my blog about all of your financing options when buying a condo-tel.

Selling at Kaanapali Alii

No agent or brokerage firm has the combination of passion, knowledge, and international marketing capability of our team and brokerage firm. Please allow me the opportunity to provide you with a thorough market analysis on your unit as well as our results proven marketing plan.

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