The Future of Maui Real Estate

I’m not even going to pretend to predict the future of Maui real estate…you know, the proverbial “I wish I had a crystal ball”…but here’s what I do know.

Going by what we have seen since 2017, prices have risen almost to unrecognizable levels. 2021 pushed us to a new and dizzying height in property values, surpassed only by what we are witnessing today where the price point continues to escalate in all property categories including residential, condominiums, and land. January 2022 alone shows a 16% rise in home prices and a staggering 26% increase in condos from the same time last year.

Maui Real Estate in High Demand

The “knowns” in the market are that we are squeezed for inventory and Maui is in high demand, feeding the price escalation. What’s more, we have yet to see the return of international buyers to the market, which will only add to the demand side of the equation.

We know that historically the peak of cycles exceeds the previous heights attained and yet over time we see peaks and valleys in the market. So the question today is, is real estate still set to remain in a bull market? I recently read an article which points to the “knowns” in the market, in summary, what’s assured is this:

  • Life stages will continue which means people will continue to buy and sell real estate
  • Lifestyle ambitions point to living the dream of owning in Maui
  • Property ownership is likely to remain and be an individual’s most valuable tangible asset

This is helpful when we look at what your intention for ownership may be. The “knowns” offer assurances that contribute to the “plus” side of the column if you list the pros and cons of buying real estate in Maui today.

The unknowns of the market such as global political unrest, climate change, pandemics, demographic shifts, are beyond our scope to guess future values. But does that mean we ought to allow “what ifs” to stymie our big dreams and goals?

view from maui

If you buy with the plan to live in Maui, then you can relax into your “forever home” and not worry too much about what the market of the future dictates. Long term hold is the golden rule. This is where intention becomes a significant factor in the timing of your purchase.

The reality is that people move to Maui to live their best life, and some are able to live a work-from-home existence and so we see a younger generation settling. Life cycles dictate that we also see, in the later stages, we may see some grandparents move back to the mainland to be nearer family. Likewise, people are packing up their lives on the mainland to be with parents, moving their families to paradise. This is the natural ebb and flow, the comings and goings we witness of buyers and sellers active in today’s housing market.

“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step”

Hope is great, but action is the only way to arrive at any destination.

My father used to work for Metropolitan Life in the seventies, and in those days their advertising slogan was “where the future is now.”

Perhaps buying vacant land today with the intention of moving to Maui in the future presents the foundation for the goal to manifest. Or buying a vacation condo that you can rent out and call home too. Or a house that becomes your retreat or second home, that nudges for first position once you realize the dream!

What we know is that there is no place like Maui. Ranked amongst the best places in the world to visit and live, I can only coin the maxim of Mastercard, when it comes to quality of life and living your dream, some things are simply “priceless.”

So what is the future of Maui real estate?

The answer will depend on what you do today. We all have our “I wish I’d bought 30 years ago” tale of woe….but here we are, like the catch phrase in that Metropolitan Life ad, “the future is now.”

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February 24, 2022

Great article. I wish I bought 20 years ago too.

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