Normally, I try to compare the same quarter for 2 consecutive years, but I seem to have a gap in my data for 3rd quarter 2014. Alternatively, this look-back will compare residential sales during our most recent quarter to the beginning of this year and other significant points in real estate history.
Data source: Hawaii Information Service, the best MLS system around!
How Are We Doing This Year?
Hilo and Hawaiian Paradise Park (HPP) continue to be most active. The number of sales in Hilo increased while the median price of a home decreased a bit. Fifteen more homes went to closing this quarter as compared to last. The number of residential properties that changed hands in HPP almost doubled this quarter as compared to the first quarter of this year.
The numbers this quarter were exactly the same as the last. A real area of concern has been the lower Puna market. Those numbers are rebounding nicely. Even Nanawale, an area heavily impacted by both foreclosures and the threat of being cut off by the lava flow, is greatly improved. Leilani numbers are improving as well. Volcano Golf and Country Club is also an area that is really perking up.
How Are We Doing Since the Market Downturn?
Another way to gage the market is to add the number of properties under contract to the active numbers. This provides the total number of active properties. Multiply the number sold this quarter by 4. If that total is higher than the number of properties on the market, it indicates an improving market, which could turn to a seller’s market very quickly just as it did in 2005/2006.
Interestingly, looking back 10 years ago (nearing the highest point in the market), the median priced home in Hilo sold for $325,000. We are hitting that number with some consistency, but we are not yet approaching the 423 closed sales that happened that year. In my mind, this is a good thing. It means that while there are plenty of buyers out there, they are inclined to take their time and make a thoughtful purchase.
HPP numbers during that time were 308 sales with a median price of $287,500. Barring any changes, HPP will likely hit that median price before long. Foreclosures are dripping on the market and pulling the median down in HPP. This too will pass.
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